International Education Crisis Will Linger Long After Students Return
Recent announcements regarding Australia’s border reopening indicate that there is hope for a resolution to the crisis in international education. There is much more to do. More than 145,000 international student visa holders remain overseas. It is not clear when or how these students will be allowed to enter Australia.
Even if they arrive on time for the start 2022 academic year this will not solve the problem of the pipeline effect. Long-term disruptions to the flow of students will result in disruptions.
Students from abroad typically study for between two and four years. As missed or reduced intakes progress through the system, it can take some time before enrolments return to their previous levels.
We Are Where We Are Now Education
According to most recent government data, the number international student visa holders have fallen by 205.854, or 33.5% since March 2020.
This is complicate by the fact that many international students will be studying overseas because of the close borders.
Below is a chart showing the international student visa holders for each week starting in March 2020 https://18.104.22.168/togel-online/prediksi/miyun-pools/.
In October 2021, 266,000 international student visa holders had been effect in Australia. Before the pandemic, there were 578,000 international students visa holders living in Australia in October 2019.
This represents a decrease of more than 300,000 international students who live in Australia or approximately 54%.
What Are The Education Effects?
The impact of the halving of Australian students will have profound consequences on those who depend on international education. Spending in the wider economy accounts for approximately 60% of the international education’s economic value.
This impact can seen in the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data. Below is a chart showing the quarterly value for international education from June 2019 to date. The chart below also shows the value of online students.
The ABS reported that the international onshore education sector had a value of A$5.5 billion for the June 2021 quarter compared to $9.1 million in the June 2019 quarter. The gains have partially offset by the growth of online learning, but it is not enough for the overall drop in international student revenue.
What About The Pipeline Effect
As students complete their courses, new students begin their studies, the student stock is always changing.
The biggest challenge facing the sector is the effect of the pipeline effect. A disruption in the flow of students can take some time to get through the pipeline.
Many international students move from pathway courses English language or preparatory to study a diploma or degree at an educational institution.
In 2020, 62% of international Chinese students took a pathway course to get into higher education.
This partially explains why the year-to-date enrollments of Chinese students in universities has dropped by 8% compared to 2019, while international Chinese students with higher education visas have declined by around 30%.
Many of those students who are now enroll in higher education were already working their ways through the pipeline before the borders were close. They have moved from a pathway course into a higher education program.
Many international students will need to continue their education if they want to enrol after the borders reopen.
Will the new flow of international students be sufficient to make up the number of students who have finished their courses? If not, student numbers will continue falling.
Why Is This Important?
For the past 30 years, Australia has relied heavily on international education revenue to fund its tertiary education program.
International students pay more than students from their home country. This allows universities to supplement their income from local students.